Our main event. Old friends turned ‘rivals’ finally get a chance to quell their beef inside the octagon. Don’t believe the animosity, there’s any chance It could simply be a marketing ploy to sell more tickets, or ‘wolf tickets’ as they’re known. Both Colby and Jorge play great characters, but if there’s one thing, this fight should deliver on all fronts…. or Colby wrestles him for 25 minutes straight.
Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington Prediction
Two elements come into play in this fight: Masvidal’s takedown defense, and Covington’s wrestling. On average Masvidal defends 75% of takedowns in a fight, he even defended a few from Usman. On the flipside, Covington averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes. So if Covington attempts 8 takedowns in this fight, he should complete at least 2, but this is all it takes for ‘Chaos’.
I think that Masvidal poses more threats than people are giving him credit for. His takedown defense is pretty spectacular, in fact, he’s been training wrestling for three consecutive fights now, and still had great grappling even beforehand. Masvidal likes to threaten the guillotine whilst framing to stand up whenever somebody tries to take him down, this gives them more than one threat to think about whilst they’re trying to floor him. This usually ends up with Masvidal clinched against the cage side, since they can’t bring him down, and from this position, Masvidal excels at firing short elbows and making distance. He mauled Diaz with these short elbows, and knocked out Cezar Ferreira in their bout in 2015.
Inevitably, Covington will shoot for a takedown and it may end up against the fence. He needs to consider these elbows when engaging in this position. When Colby does take Jorge down (which is a guarantee in 25 minutes), he should have the advantage of top control. Still, he needs to worry about Jorge’s submission threat and bottom game. Jorge likes to smother the head and come in with elbows from the bottom to make it as unpleasant as possible.
Colby’s cardio is unmatched, and this is where the fight tips in his favour, as a constant takedown game plan wears considerably on the victim. Masvidal doesn’t have bad cardio by any means, but it isn’t good enough to resist a takedown attempt per minute.
Jorge’s best chance to win here is to take the first round or two on the feet with good, measured striking. Similar to how he stole the first round from Usman in their first fight, and was finding success before the finish in the rematch (which I maintain he lost due to his hubris). Jorge has a real chance at upsetting Colby in this fight, having striking that is lightyears ahead, good grappling defense, and surprisingly good BJJ (which even Demian Maia says is the best he faced in the UFC).
This is an incredibly risky pick because Masvidal could just be outwrestled for the entire fight. But I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Jorge has a good chance of finishing Colby on the feet inside the distance. Once Colby realizes its a lot harder to take Jorge down than he thinks, the striking will open up and he’ll get caught by the superior Masvidal.
My pick – Masvidal by KO/TKO
Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington Betting
Oddschecker has Masvidal as a massive underdog at 31/10 to win outright. He’s a live dog so these odds should be tempting. It’s seriously risky, so Covington to win at 3/1 should also be a safe bet.
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